Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures closed the day with gains of 1 to 2 cents, as Dec lost 1.36% on the week with the help of Thursday’s report. The USDA corn yield estimate has moved +5.9 bpa since the August report. NE (-2) and MI (-1) were the only major producing states that showed a reduction in yield in November’s report. Total export commitments are now 21.67% lower than this time last year, gaining 5.19% over the last week. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that the Argentina corn crop is 35% planted, up slightly over last week’s 33.9%. The CFTC Commitment of Traders report will be delayed until Monday, in observance of Veteran’s day on Saturday.

Dec 17 Corn closed at $3.43 1/2, up 2 cents,

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.56 3/4, up 2 cents,

May 18 Corn closed at $3.65 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.73, up 1 1/2 cents

Soybean futures settled the Friday session mostly 2 cents higher, following Thursday’s losses. December meal was up $2.70/ton, with nearby bean oil down 33 points. The USDA raised the average farm price range for soybeans 10 cents to $8.45 - $10.15, with the midpoint @ $9.30. Soybean export commitments so far this year are now lagging last year by 12.9%, losing ground since last week on fewer sales and shipments. AgRural estimates that 57% of the Brazilian soybean crop has been planted, picking up steam vs. the average of 56% but still slower than last year. Abiove expects Brazilian crushers to produce 31% more biodiesel in 2018 to meet an increased blend requirement there. They also estimate that only 1.5 MMT of soybeans of additional soybeans will be used to get to get that 31% increase in biodiesel. In Argentina, BAGE projects that 12% of the crop is planted, progressing over last week’s 7.2%.

Nov 17 Soybeans closed at $9.77 1/4, up 2 cents,

Jan 18 Soybeans closed at $9.87, up 2 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans closed at $9.98, up 2 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $10.15 1/2, up 2 cents,

Dec 17 Soybean Meal closed at $314.50, up $2.70,

Dec 17 Soybean Oil closed at $34.81, down $0.33

Wheat futures were mostly 2 – 5 cents higher in the KC and CBT contracts today, as MPLS was mixed with Dec 1/2 cent lower. Export commitments of all wheat actually gained ground last week by 0.3% but are still 4.6% below last year, as sales were much improved. The USDA lowered estimated ending stocks for both HRW and HRS, as HRW saw increased export and HRS had higher domestic use. Russia’s production was increased 1 MMT to 83 MMT on Thursday. Lower production in Brazil and Pakistan helped to offset that, along with adding imports to Brazil. Russia is hoping to improve their export infrastructure, with a goal to increase grain exports 50% in the next 3 years to an average of 7.5 MMT/ month.

Dec 17 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.31 1/2, up 2 1/2 cents,

Dec 17 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.33 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents,

Dec 17 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.47 1/2, down 1/2 cent

Live cattle futures posted losses of $1.65 to $1.90 in the nearby contracts on Friday. Feeder cattle futures were steady to 67.5 cents lower, trying to narrow the feeder/fat spreads. The CME feeder cattle index was 39 cents higher at $159.37 on November 9. Wholesale beef prices were mixed on Friday afternoon. Choice was up $1.11 at $213.85, with select boxes $3.79 lower at $194.51. That widened the Ch/Select spread to $19.34. Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter through Saturday is 623,000 head, 19,000 fewer than the previous week and 8,000 head above the same week last year. Total 2017 commitments for US beef exports are still 10.9% above last year.

Dec 17 Cattle closed at $120.575, down $1.900,

Feb 18 Cattle closed at $126.750, down $1.775,

Apr 18 Cattle closed at $127.100, down $1.650,

Nov 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $158.475, unch,

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $157.175, down $0.675

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $155.075, down $0.325

Lean hog futures finished the Friday session mixed with Dec the only contracts lower, down 70 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index for 11/8 was down 41 cents to $67.94. The national base hog average was down 17 cents at $59.70 this afternoon. Week to date FI hog slaughter through Saturday is estimated at 2,495,000 head. That is 38,000 head larger than the previous week and 37,000 head above the same week in 2016. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 60 cents in the Friday afternoon report. The loin, picnic, and rib were lower on the day.

Dec 17 Hogs closed at $62.475, down $0.700,

Feb 18 Hogs closed at $70.250, up $0.025

Apr 18 Hogs closed at $74.050, up $0.025

Cotton futures saw gains of 33 to 76 points on Friday. All upland cotton export shipments for the week of November 2 totaled 124,292 RB, nearly 43.13% over last week but still lagging last year. Total export commitments for upland cotton are now 63% of the USDA full year projection, well above last year’s 45% and the average of 49%. On Thursday, the USDA raised the US average yield 11 lbs/ac to 900 lbs/ac, which would be a record. They also adjusted the average farm price of cotton to a range of 60-66 cents/lb, with a midpoint of 63 cents/lb, up 3 cents. The USDA average world price (AWP) was updated to 61.38 cents/lb, 33 points higher than the previous week. The Cotlook A index for November 9 was 50 points higher to 79.60 cents/lb.

Dec 17 Cotton closed at 69.050, up 76 points,

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 69.140, up 60 points

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 70.570, up 42 points

Market Commentary provided by:

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