AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are steady to a penny higher in most contracts at midday. The USDA announced a private export sale of 130,000 MT of 17/18 corn to unknown destinations this morning. The weekly EIA report showed ethanol production picking up to 1.068 million barrels per day. That was 52,000 bpd larger than the previous week, as stocks of ethanol dropped 132,000 barrels to 22.753 million barrels. The USDA sees the US planted acreage number at 90 million acres in their annual Ag Outlook Forum, larger than most estimates but slightly lower than last year. The average farm price for corn is seen a dime higher at $3.40 in 18/19. South Korea purchased 120,000 MT of US corn in a tender on Thursday. Argentina corn production is seen at 35 MMT by the Rosario Grain Exchange, which is down 5 MMT from their previous estimate.

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.66 3/4, up 1 cent,

May 18 Corn is at $3.75, up 1 cent,

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.82 3/4, up 1 cent

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.89 1/4, up 1/2 cent

Soybeans

Soybean futures are trading 1 to 2 1/4 cents in the green at midday. Soy meal futures are down 30 cents/ton, with nearby soy oil 8 points higher. A private export sale of 110,000 MT of soybeans was reported by the USDA this morning to unknown destinations. That sale was spilt with 55,000 MT for 17/18 and 18/19 each. In the annual Ag Outlook Forum, the USDA expects to US producers to plant 90 million acres of soybeans. That is below estimates and slightly below a year ago. The average soybean prices in 2018/19 is expected to be down a nickel to $9.25. The Rosario Grain Exchange expects the 17/18 Argentine crop at 46.5 MMT, 5.5 MMT lower than the prior projection.

Mar 18 Soybeans are at $10.36 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents,

May 18 Soybeans are at $10.47 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans are at $10.57, up 2 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $10.57 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 Soybean Meal is at $377.70, down $0.30,

Mar 18 Soybean Oil is at $32.15, up $0.08

Wheat

Wheat futures are steady to 3 cent higher in most CBT and KC contracts on Thursday, with MPLS fractionally mixed. Analysts are expecting the USDA's Export Sales report to show all wheat old crop sales of 250,000 to 500,000 MT for the week of Feb 15. They also estimate that new crops sales will total 0-100,000 MT in Friday's report. The USDA released a projection of 46.5 million acres of wheat planted for the 2018/19 marketing year. That is above estimates and planted acres from last year. They also expect the average cash price for wheat to hit $4.70 on 2018/19, 10 cents higher than 17/18. Russia's IKAR expects the country to export 37.5 MMT of wheat during 17/18, nearly 0.9 MMT larger than their previous estimate.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.50, up 2 3/4 cents,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.67 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat is at $6.00 1/2, down 3/4 cent

Cattle

Live cattle futures are down 40 cents to $1.375 at midday. Feeder cattle futures are 25 to 65 cents lower on Thursday. The CME feeder cattle index was up 12 cents on February 20 at $147.99. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Thursday morning. Choice boxes were up 4 cents at $217.41, with Select boxes 22 cents higher at $212.14. Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter was 324,000 head through Wednesday. That is down 18,000 from the previous week and 5,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Most cash trade has been reported at $128 so far this week. Analysts are estimating that Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed report to show on feed numbers as of Feb 1 up 7.4% from a year ago at 11.575 million head. The average steer price during 2018 is expected to be $119.25, down nearly $2.27 from 2017. Production is seen at 27.7 billion pounds in 2018, up 1.5 billion pounds from last year.

Feb 18 Cattle are at $128.275, down $1.375,

Apr 18 Cattle are at $125.150, down $1.075,

Jun 18 Cattle are at $116.650, down $0.400,

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle are at $146.375, down $0.275

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.525, down $0.575

May 18 Feeder Cattle are at $149.400, down $0.650

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are 75 cents to $1.15 higher on Thursday. The CME Lean Hog Index on February 20 was $70.78, down 63 cents from the previous day. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 88 cents lower at $79.61 in the Thursday AM report. The national base hog weighted average price was down 57 cents at $63.36 this morning. The USDA estimated week to date FI hog slaughter at 1,339,000 through Wednesday. That is down 49,000 head from the previous week but 20,000 head more than the same time last year. The USDA expects the US to produce 26.8 billion pounds of pork during 2018, up from 25.6 billion pounds in 2017. They also see the average price down $2.52 to $48/cwt in 2018.

Apr 18 Hogs are at $70.900, up $1.000,

May 18 Hogs are at $76.925, up $0.775

Jun 18 Hogs are at $82.450, up $1.150

Cotton

Cotton futures are mixed, with nearby March 53 points higher and back months lower. Cotton acreage is expected to hit 13.3 million acres in 2018 according to the USDA's Ag Outlook Forum. That is well above the 2017 number of 12.6 million acres. The average prices expected is at 63 cents/lb, down 6 cents from the previous week. The USDA Export Sales report is delayed until Friday morning because of the President’s Day holiday. The current USDA Adjusted World Price or AWP is 69.15 cents/lb, and will be updated on Thursday. The Cotlook A index was up 185 points from the previous day on February 21 at 88.70 cents/lb.

Mar 18 Cotton is at 79.44, up 53 points,

May 18 Cotton is at 79.61, down 78 points

Jul 18 Cotton is at 80.47, down 63 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
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