Trade Tariffs in Focus

March 8, 2018


Stock index futures are higher after the White House appears to be softening its position ontrade tariffs, even before an executive order is signed by President Donald Trump. Yesterday an advisor to President Trump said Mexico and Canada would be initially excluded from the proposed tariffs.

The number of Americans filing applications for new unemployment benefits increased last week from the lowest level since 1969.

Initial jobless claims rose 21,000 to 231,000 in the week ended March 3, when economists expected 220,000 new claims.

In spite of the recent correction, I am not seeing the beginning of any new long term bear market for stock index futures.


The euro currency advanced when the European Central Bank dropped a long standing promise at its policy meeting today to increase bond purchases if needed. This is viewed as a small step towards taking the euro zone economy off its extended stimulus program.

However, these gains were given back when ECB President Mario Draghi at his press conference made comments that were slightly dovish on balance.

German factory order declined 3.9% in January, but were still up 8.2% on the year.

I continue to expect the double top resistance at the 1.2579 area in the March euro currency to be taken out.


The probability of a fed funds rate increase at the Federal Open Market Committees March 21 policy meeting is 86%, which is unchanged from yesterday.

The main trend for the entire interest rate futures complex is lower.

The thirty year Treasury bond futures are likely to breakout to the downside from the triangle congestion pattern.


March 18 S&P 500

Support 2715.00 Resistance 2745.00

March 18 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 89.320 Resistance 89.680

March 18 Euro Currency

Support 1.23620 Resistance 1.24660

March 18 Japanese Yen

Support .94140 Resistance .94570

March 18 Canadian Dollar

Support .77110 Resistance .77830

March 18 Australian Dollar

Support .7785 Resistance .7839

June 18 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 142^28 Resistance 143^20

April 18 Gold

Support 1321.0Resistance 1335.0

May 18 Copper

Support 3.0800 Resistance 3.1400

April 18 Crude Oil

Support 60.71 Resistance 61.76

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at Thank you.

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