Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures closed the Monday session 1 to 2 cents lower. The USDA Export Inspections report showed corn shipments of a very slow 375,951 MT during the week of November 9. That is 45.12% lower than this time last year and 17.62% below the previous week. This afternoon’s Crop Progress report showed the US corn harvest 83% complete as of Sunday, lagging the average of 91%. Total export commitments have filled 39.66% of the current USDA export projection, compared to 47% last year and the average of 43%. The Monday edition of the CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed spec funds in corn futures and options adding 2,861 to their net short position of 205,624 contracts on 11/7.

Dec 17 Corn closed at $3.42 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.55, down 1 3/4 cents,

May 18 Corn closed at $3.63 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.71 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents

Soybean futures posted losses of 9 to 13 3/4 cents on Monday. December meal was down $3.20/ton, with nearby bean oil 48 points lower. A private export sale of 135,000 MT of 17/18 soy meal to the Philippines was announced through the USDA’s daily reporting system this morning. President Trump was in the Philippines meeting with Duterte. The USDA reported that the US soybean harvest was 93% as of 11/12, shy of the average of 95%. This morning’s USDA Export Inspections report showed 2.087 MMT in soybean exports for the week ending 11/9. That is a drop of 16.27% from last week and still lags last year by 29.12%. Soybean export commitments are now 51% of the full year USDA export estimate vs. the average of 67% and last year’s 64%. The Brazilian record crop overhang has diminished, but it still a market factor.

Nov 17 Soybeans closed at $9.63 1/2, down 13 3/4 cents,

Jan 18 Soybeans closed at $9.74 1/4, down 12 3/4 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans closed at $9.85 1/2, down 12 1/2 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $10.03 1/2, down 12 cents,

Dec 17 Soybean Meal closed at $311.30, down $3.20,

Dec 17 Soybean Oil closed at $34.33, down $0.48

Wheat futures finished the day with most CBT and KC contracts 4-7 1/4 cents lower, as MPLS was down 7 to 14 1/4 cents. The US winter wheat crop was reported at 95% planted this afternoon, with 84% emerged. The USDA also reported conditions deteriorating 3 points on the Brugler500 index to 348, as gd/ex ratings were down 1% to 54%. The Export Inspections report released this morning showed wheat for November 9 improving over last week by 5.57% at 301,039 MT. That was also 7.84% larger than the same week last year, as YTD inspections lag last year by 5.69% at 11.728 MMT. A total of 30,000 MT of US SRW was purchased by a Moroccan firm through the country’s preferential-tariff import quota.

Dec 17 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.24 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents,

Dec 17 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.27 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents,

Dec 17 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.33 1/4, down 14 1/4 cents

Live cattle futures settled the Monday session with most contracts steady to 35 cents lower. Feeder cattle futures were mostly lower, with Nov 22.5 cents higher ahead of Thursday’s expiration. The CME feeder cattle index was 62 cents higher at $160.00 on November 10. Wholesale beef prices were lower on Monday afternoon. Choice was down $1.04 at $212.81, with select boxes 68 cents lower at $193.83. The Cattle on Feed report will be released this Friday at 2:00 p.m. CST. Managed money spec funds added another 11,576 contracts to their net long position in live cattle futures and options. That net position was at 132,032 contracts for the week that ended November 7. Some of those new arrivals are now obviously under water.

Dec 17 Cattle closed at $120.575, unch,

Feb 18 Cattle closed at $126.400, down $0.350,

Apr 18 Cattle closed at $126.975, down $0.125,

Nov 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $158.700, up $0.225

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $156.975, down $0.200

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $154.625, down $0.450

Lean hog futures closed the day with mixed trade, as Dec was 17.5 cents lower with back months higher. The CME Lean Hog Index for 11/9 was down 47 cents to $67.47. The national base hog average was down 48 cents at $58.94 this afternoon. The USDA pork carcass cutout value for Monday afternoon was 53 cents lower at $81.39. The butt, rib, and ham primals were all lower. Spec traders in lean hog futures and options held a net long position of 78,206 contract for the week ending Nov 7. During that week, they added another 10,314 contracts to their net long position.

Dec 17 Hogs closed at $62.300, down $0.175,

Feb 18 Hogs closed at $70.300, up $0.050

Apr 18 Hogs closed at $74.250, up $0.200

Cotton futures were 17 to 35 points lower on Monday. The US dollar was 114 points higher at on the day. The US cotton harvest progressed another 10% over the last week and was reported at 64% complete as of Sunday, even with the average pace. Online cash sales reported by The Seam were down to 4,735 bales, as prices fell 16 points to 68.24 cents/lb. The USDA average world price (AWP) was updated to 61.38 cents/lb, 33 points higher than the previous week. The Cotlook A index for November 10 was 25 points lower to 79.35 cents/lb. The Commitment of Traders report showed managed money lowering their net long position by 2,431 contracts. That net position stood at 44,883 contracts for the week that ended 11/7.

Dec 17 Cotton closed at 68.880, down 17 points,

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 68.930, down 21 points

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 70.420, down 15 points

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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