Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures closed the Tuesday session with most contracts 3 to 4 3/4 cents higher. The USDA reported private export sales of 120,000 MT of corn to Japan and 105,000 MT to Unknown destinations for 17/18 delivery through their daily reporting system this morning. The weekly EIA report will be released on Wednesday morning. Ahead of Thursday’s monthly USDA report, analysts are expecting to see Brazil’s corn production number cut 1.7 to 93.3 MMT, with Argentina down 1.5 to 40.5 MMT. They are also expecting to see a world ending stocks to be trimmed 1.89 MMT to 204.66 MMT on the smaller South American production.

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.63 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents,

May 18 Corn closed at $3.71 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents,

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.78 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.85 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents

Soybean futures ended Turnaround Tuesday with sharp gains of 13 to 16 1/2 cents, as most nearby contracts settled within a penny off their highs. Meal futures were up $4.70/ton, with nearby soy oil 66 points higher. Protests by truckers, slowing shipping in Argentina, provided a little support. Analysts are projecting the USDA will add 1.5 MMT to Brazil’s soybean production to 111.5 MMT. That increase is expected to be offset by a 2.2 MMT reduction in Argentine production to 53.8 MMT. The USDA ag attach in Brazil estimates the crop at 112.5 MMT. With the adjustments to individual country’s production, world ending stocks are expected to be trimmed slightly to 98.3 MMT.

Mar 18 Soybeans closed at $9.86 1/4, up 16 1/2 cents,

May 18 Soybeans closed at $9.97 3/4, up 16 1/2 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $10.07 1/2, up 16 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $10.05 1/2, up 15 cents,

Mar 18 Soybean Meal closed at $331.70, up $4.70,

Mar 18 Soybean Oil closed at $33.16, up $0.66

Wheat futures showed modest 6 to 8 cent gains in most contracts on Tuesday. World ending stocks are expected to see a slight reduction in Thursday’s USDA report, with the average trade guess 0.22 MMT below January at 267.8 MMT. On Tuesday, Taiwan purchased 77,200 MT of US wheat for March-April shipment. Japan is seeking 100,517 MT of wheat from Australia, Canada, and the US. The weekly MOA tender will close Thursday, with 33,442 MT sought from the US. Ethopia is seeking 400,000 MT of wheat, with the tender to close February 13.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.46 1/4, up 6 cents,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.69, up 7 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.08 1/4, up 6 1/2 cents

Live cattle futures settled the day with most contracts 40 cents to $1.125 lower. Feeder cattle futures also showed losses of 62.5 cents to $1.20 on Tuesday. The CME feeder cattle index was down 17 cents on February 5 at $147.95. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down $1 at $208.43, with Select boxes $1.43 lower at $202.73. Estimated FI week to date cattle slaughter was 230,000 head through Tuesday. That was down 4,000 from the previous week but 8,000 head larger than the same week last year.

Feb 18 Cattle closed at $125.625, down $0.500,

Apr 18 Cattle closed at $124.575, down $0.900,

Jun 18 Cattle closed at $115.825, down $1.125,

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $148.725, down $0.950

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.425, down $1.100

May 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.125, down $1.200

Lean hog futures posted triple digit losses in most contracts on Tuesday, with nearby Feb down $1.075. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 38 cents on February 2 at $74.48. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $1.89 lower at $78.23 in the Tuesday PM report. The loin was the only cut reported higher, as the belly was down a sharp $8.51 again today. The national base hog weighted average price was UNCH at $72.66 this afternoon. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 927,000 through Tuesday. That is down 6,000 head from the previous week and 43,000 head more than the same time last year.

Feb 18 Hogs closed at $74.750, down $1.075,

Apr 18 Hogs closed at $71.425, down $1.900

May 18 Hogs closed at $77.100, down $1.200

Cotton futures finished the Tuesday session with mixed trade. Most front months were 38 to 52 points lower, as back months were 11 to 32 points higher. Pressure in the nearby contracts came from lower crude oil, as the US dollar was slightly higher at the close. Data from the National Cotton Council’s planting intentions survey will be available next Monday. The USDA Adjusted World Price or AWP is 71.35 cents/lb, through Thursday. The Cotlook A index on February 1 was 88.10 cents/lb, down 95 points from the previous day.

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 76.190, down 38 points,

May 18 Cotton closed at 77.380, down 52 points

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 78.370, down 47 points

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