Corn Commentary - Just My Opinion

Weekly Corn Export Inspections - 1.527 M T. vs. 1.400-1.700 M T. expected

US Corn Planting Progress - 81% planted vs. 80% expected vs. 81% 5-year average Emerged 50% vs. 47% 5-year average

There was a lot of push-pull happening in the corn market during Mondays trade. Prices started out higher Sunday night, traded slightly lower early in the day session and then rebounded midday back to the plus side only to finish fractionally to 1 cent higher. The Sunday night higher trade was in response to US/Chinese trade discussions (both sides have agreed to hold off on tariffs for the time being) as well as ideas the Brazilian 2nd season corn crop is shrinking at a rapid pace. Late Friday a Brazilian consultancy suggested their corn crop is 79.02 M T. vs. a CONAB estimate of 89.2 M T. earlier this month. If true this would mean the potential for great US export business further down the road. The early dip to slightly lower on the day was in response to the idea that the pace of US corn planting has reached 80%. When everything is considered the Chinese/US truce on tariffs really doesnt impact the corn market but the reduction in the Brazilian corn crop, if true does.

The interior corn market sees little change on Monday. What changes that I am seeing are Illinois River bids being a shade easier. From what I can see not much is happening at the Gulf. Corn spreads ran softer on the day suggesting the early rally did prompt some old crop corn to move. The July/Dec corn went home at its contract low. This suggests the spec is the best buyer not the commercial despitesthoughts of better export business down the road.

July corn comes within of a cent of its recent interim high made on May 3rd & 4th. Dec corn makes new highs for its ongoing rally but not new high closes. It seems like we are seeing spec buying being partially offset by hedge related selling. I will admit that the charts appear to be more constructive looking vs. what the closing prices suggest. Daily momentum indicators had been moving south but after todays trade are now trying turn back higher. the price action is suggesting we dont have to chase rallies while still focusing on buying breaks until proven wrong. What proves us wrong closes below last weeks lows.

Daily Support & Resistance for 05/22

July Corn: $3.99 - $4.05

Dec Corn: $4.16 - $4.24

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