Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are mostly 3 3/4 cents higher in the nearby contracts at midday. The USDA reported private export sales of 120,000 MT of corn to Japan and 105,000 MT to Unknown destinations for 17/18 delivery through their daily reporting system this morning. The weekly EIA report will be released on Wednesday. Ahead of Thursday’s monthly USDA report, analysts are expecting to see a 9 mbu reduction in US corn ending stocks to 2.468 bbu. They are also expecting to see Brazil’s corn production number cut 1.7 to 93.3 MMT, with Argentina down 1.5 to 40.5 MMT.

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.62 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents,

May 18 Corn is at $3.70 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents,

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.78, up 3 3/4 cents

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.85, up 3 3/4 cents

Soybean futures are showing gains of 13-14 cents in most front months on Turnaround Tuesday. Meal futures are up $4.80/ton, with nearby soy oil 54 points higher. Protests by truckers, slowing shipping in Argentina, are providing support at the moment. The average trade guess for 2017/18 soybean ending stocks in Thursday’s USDA Supply and Demand report is 487.8 mbu, 17.8 mbu larger than January. Traders are expecting another cut in export projections. Analysts are also projecting the USDA will add 1.5 MMT to Brazil’s soybean production at 111.5 MMT. That increase is expected to be offset by a 2.2 MMT reduction in Argentine production to 53.8 MMT.

Mar 18 Soybeans are at $9.83 1/2, up 13 3/4 cents,

May 18 Soybeans are at $9.94 3/4, up 13 1/2 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans are at $10.04 3/4, up 13 1/2 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $10.07, up 13 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 Soybean Meal is at $331.80, up $4.80

Mar 18 Soybean Oil is at $33.04, up $0.54

Wheat futures are mostly 5 to 7 cents higher at Tuesday’s midday. Analysts are expecting 17/18 US ending stocks to be steady in the February WASDE at 987.8 mbu, down just 1.2 mbu. On Tuesday, Taiwan purchased 77,200 MT of US wheat for March-April shipment. Japan is seeking 100,517 MT of wheat from Australia, Canada, and the US. The weekly MOA tender will close Thursday, with 33,442 MT sought from the US. Ethopia is seeking 400,000 MT of wheat, with the tender to close February 13.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.46, up 5 3/4 cents,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.68 1/2, up 6 3/4 cents,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat is at $6.08 3/4, up 7 cents

Live cattle futures are currently 20 to 80 cents in the red in most contacts. Feeder cattle futures are down 72.5 to 82.5 cents in the front months. The CME feeder cattle index was up 9 cents on February 1 at $148.12. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Tuesday morning. Choice boxes were up 47 cents at $209.90, with Select boxes 92 cents lower at $203.24. Estimated FI cattle slaughter was 114,000 head on Monday. That was down 4,000 from the previous week but 5,000 head larger than the same Monday last year.

Feb 18 Cattle are at $125.900, down $0.225,

Apr 18 Cattle are at $124.675, down $0.800,

Jun 18 Cattle are at $116.250, down $0.700,

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.950, down $0.725

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle are at $149.700, down $0.825

May 18 Feeder Cattle are at $149.575, down $0.750

Lean hog futures are posting sharp losses in most contracts at midday, with nearby Feb $1.025 lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 38 cents on February 2 at $74.48. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $1.67 higher at $81.79 in the Tuesday AM report. The butt and rib primal were the only cuts reported lower. The national base hog weighted average price was up 28 cents to $72.94. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 466,000 on Monday. That is even with the previous week, and 29,000 head more than the same Monday last year.

Feb 18 Hogs are at $74.800, down $1.025,

Apr 18 Hogs are at $70.725, down $2.600

May 18 Hogs are at $76.575, down $1.725

Cotton futures are modestly mixed on Tuesday, with front month March up 2 points. One CNBC headline put the global loss from Monday’s selloff in paper value at $4 trillion. That said, there is now a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines looking for someplace to go. The International Cotton Advisory Committee currently estimates that the world cotton production will total 25.51 MMT in 17/18, 2.53 MMT larger than 16/17. Ending stocks are only estimated to increase 0.14 MMT to 18.88 MMT. The USDA Adjusted World Price or AWP is 71.35 cents/lb, through Thursday. The Cotlook A index on February 1 was 88.10 cents/lb, down 95 points from the previous day.

Mar 18 Cotton is at 76.59, up 2 points,

May 18 Cotton is at 77.85, down 5 points

Jul 18 Cotton is at 78.76, down 8 points

Market Commentary provided by:

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