Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are currently 1 3/4 cents lower in most nearby contracts on Monday. Total export commitments have filled 39.66% of the current USDA export projection, compared to 47% last year and the average of 43%. Analysts are expecting the USDA to show the corn harvest at 83% complete this afternoon. The USDA Export Inspections report showed corn shipments of a very slow 375,951 MT during the week of November 9. That is 45.12% lower than this time last year and 17.62% below the previous week. The CFTC Commitment of Traders report was delayed until this afternoon due to the federal Veteran’s Day observance on Friday.

Dec 17 Corn is at $3.42 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.55, down 1 3/4 cents,

May 18 Corn is at $3.63 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.71 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents

Soybean futures are showing losses of 10 3/4 to 11 1/4 cents in most front months on Monday. December meal is down $2.40/ton, with nearby bean oil 47 points lower. A private export sale of 135,000 MT of 17/18 soy meal to the Philippines was announced through the USDA’s daily reporting system this morning. President Trump was in the Phillippines meeting with Duterte. Traders are estimating USDA will show the soybean harvest 95% completed in this afternoon’s report. This morning’s USDA Export Inspections report showed 2.087 MMT in soybean exports for the week ending 11/9. That is a drop of 16.27% from last week and still lags last year by 29.12%. Soybean export commitments are now 51% of the full year USDA export estimate vs. the average of 67% and last year’s 64%. The Brazilian record crop overhang has diminished, but it still a market factor.

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $9.66, down 11 1/4 cents,

Jan 18 Soybeans are at $9.75 3/4, down 11 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans are at $9.87 1/4, down 10 3/4 cents,

May 18 Soybeans are at $9.96 1/4, down 10 3/4 cents,

Dec 17 Soybean Meal is at $312.10, down $2.40

Dec 17 Soybean Oil is at $34.34, down $0.47

Wheat futures are mostly 5 to 7 1/2 cents lower in the CBT and KC contracts at midday. MPLS is currently 7 to 11 1/4 cents in the red. This afternoon’s Crop Progress report is expected to show the winter wheat crop 95% planted, with conditions seen as improving slightly. The Export Inspections report released this morning showed wheat for 11/9 improving over last week by 5.57% at 301,039 MT. That was also 7.84% larger than the same week last year, as YTD inspections lag last year by 5.69% at 11.728 MMT. A total of 30,000 MT of US SRW was purchased by a Moroccan firm through the country’s preferential-tariff import quota.

Dec 17 CBOT Wheat is at $4.24, down 7 1/2 cents,

Dec 17 KCBT Wheat is at $4.27 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents,

Dec 17 MGEX Wheat is at $6.36 1/4, down 11 1/4 cents

Live cattle futures are showing gains of 45 to 67.5 cents in the front contracts at noon, with back months lower. Feeder cattle futures are mixed, with nearby Nov 60 cents higher ahead of Thursday’s expiration. The CME feeder cattle index was 39 cents higher at $159.37 on November 9. Wholesale beef prices were lower on Monday morning. Choice was down 76 cents at $213.09, with select boxes 46 cents lower at $194.05. Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter was 623,000 head, 19,000 fewer than the previous week but 8,000 head above the same week in 2016. The Cattle on Feed report will be released this Friday at 2:00 p.m. CST.

Dec 17 Cattle are at $121.250, up $0.675,

Feb 18 Cattle are at $127.200, up $0.450,

Apr 18 Cattle are at $127.625, up $0.525,

Nov 17 Feeder Cattle are at $159.075, up $0.600

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle are at $157.050, down $0.125

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle are at $154.625, down $0.450

Lean hog futures are mixed, with most contracts marginally on either side of UNCH. The CME Lean Hog Index for 11/9 was down 47 cents to $67.47. The national base hog average was down 50 cents at $58.92 this morning. The USDA pork carcass cutout value for Monday morning was delayed. Weekly FI hog slaughter through Saturday was estimated at 2,495,000 head. That is 38,000 head larger than the previous week and 37,000 head above the same week in 2016. Some packers appear to be going slow on Saturday kills, trying to improve margins.

Dec 17 Hogs are at $62.250, down $0.225,

Feb 18 Hogs are at $70.250, unch,

Apr 18 Hogs are at $74.125, up $0.075

Cotton futures are mostly 9 to 19 points lower. The US dollar is 152 points higher at noon. Total export commitments for upland cotton are now 63% of the USDA full year projection, well above last year’s 45% and the average of 49% for this date. Online cash sales reported by The Seam were down to 4,735 bales, as prices fell 16 points to 68.24 cents/lb. The USDA average world price (AWP) was updated to 61.38 cents/lb, 33 points higher than the previous week. The Cotlook A index for November 10 was 25 points lower to 79.35 cents/lb.

Dec 17 Cotton is at 68.93, down 12 points,

Mar 18 Cotton is at 68.95, down 19 points

May 18 Cotton is at 69.89, down 19 points

Jul 18 Cotton is at 70.480, down 9 points

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
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