Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading fractionally lower this morning. They showed gains of 4 to 4 3/4 cents on Wednesday, supported by specs covering their short positions in March but adding new longs in May and July. That was the largest 1 day move for the March contract since December 4! Preliminary open interest was up 9876 contracts for the day. The weekly EIA report will be out later this morning, with ethanol production coming off a steep drop in the previous week to 996,000 bpd. Data from the FSA shows 964,596 prevent plant acres for corn in their final acreage survey report. That was down 8.33% from the January 2017 report and is the smallest number of PP acres since 2012.



Soybean futures are 1 to 1 1/2 lower this morning after finishing somewhat strong on Wednesday. March settled 7 1/2 cents off the low, although up only 3/4 cent for the day. Meal futures were $1.50/ton higher, with nearby soy oil 28 points lower. Prevent plant acres in the FSA’s final report were at 435,430 acres for the 2017 soybean crop. That was well above last year’s 236,609 acres. In Brazil’s largest soybean producing state of Mato Grosso, forward sales have totaled nearly 42% of the 17/18 soybean crop, lagging last year’s pace of 55% by this time.



Wheat futures are mostly 1 to 3 cents higher this morning, with Minneapolis the firmest. They closed the Wednesday session with most HRW and SRW contracts 3 to 5 cents in the green on short covering. MPLS HRS contracts were fractionally higher. The FSA reported that US wheat producers enrolled 619,685 prevent plant acres for the 2017 wheat crop. That was the fewest number of acres since 2012 and was 65.33% lower than the previous year. The moral is that in drought years (see MT, Dakotas), the crop gets planted and abandoned later. The same tendency was shown in the winter wheat acreage report last Friday. Ukraine wheat exports have totaled nearly 11.7 MMT during the 17/18 marketing year so far according to their ag ministry, which lags the same time in the previous year by 0.6 MMT. The weekly USDA Export sales report will be delayed until Friday because of the Monday holiday.



Live cattle futures finished Wednesday with nearby Feb almost limit, +$2.875. Traders were actively rolling out of February into April. Feeder cattle futures were also sharply higher, with gains of $1.725 to $2.275. The CME feeder cattle index on January 16 was $145.01, down 37 cents from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef values were down 28 cents in both grades on Wednesday afternoon. Choice boxes were at $205.30, with Select boxes at $199.61. Estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter was 353,000 head through Wednesday. That was 1,000 head fewer than last week. The FCE online auction saw only 108 of the 304 head sold at a price of $119.75, with offers of $118 and $119.50 passed by feedlots. Cash bids around the country were still around $118 on Wednesday but it would be notable if they fail to meet the FCE quote.



Lean hog futures ended the day with most nearby contracts 45 cents to $1.175 in the red, with back months slightly lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 77 cents on January 15 at $71.92. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 24 cents at $80.95 in the Wednesday afternoon report. The loin, ham, and belly primals were reported lower. The national base hog weighted average price was down 7 cents to $69.64 Wednesday afternoon. The USDA FI hog slaughter was estimated at 1,294,000 head through Wednesday, which is 107,000 larger than the same week last year, but 85,000 head lower than last week.



Cotton futures are trading 138 to 144 higher this morning. They posted gains of 40 to 74 points in the front months on Wednesday, with deferred contracts mixed. Recent weakness in the dollar has provided support. The US dollar was lower into the cotton close, but rebounded to finish 484 points higher. It is slightly higher this morning. Online cash sales for Tuesday reported on the Seam totaled 15,426 bales, as prices averaged 72.07 cents/lb, down 42 points from the previous day. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP), is 71.21 cents/lb, and will be updated today per usual. The Cotlook A Index for January 16 was UNCH from the previous day at 92.35 cents/lb.






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

First you raise it, then you market it!  Check out the full Brugler advisory service with this special Harvest 2Fer offer at  http://bit.ly/Harvest2Fer.


 

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.