Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trying to bounce back from Friday’s contract lows after USDA’s bearish reports. They are fractionally on either side of UNCH at midday. The weekly Export Inspections report indicated just 584,389 MT of corn was shipped during the week of Jan 11. That is a drop of 31.28% from the week prior and 35.85% below the same time in 2018. For the 17/18 marketing year, inspections are just 63.77% of the total for the same time in the previous year. Friday’s NASS Crop Production report showed corn yield increases over 2016 in most states along the Corn Belt, with exception to the Dakotas, KS, IA and WI.

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.46 3/4, up 1/2 cent,

May 18 Corn is at $3.55, up 1/4 cent,

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.63, up 1/4 cent

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.70 1/2, down 1/4 cent

Soybean futures are mostly 4 cents higher on Tuesday. Meal futures are up $4.50/ton, with nearby soy oil down 42 points. The USDA reported 1.231 MMT in soybean export inspections during the week of Jan 11. That was a 1.51% increase from the week before but still lags last year for this time by 13.46%. Full 17/18 shipments are now 14.09% (185.8 mbu) behind the same time last year. This morning’s monthly NOPA report indicated that a record amount of 166.382 mbu of soybeans was crushed by their members during December, nearly 1 mbu larger than expectations. That was a 3.87% jump over December 2016 and 1.73% larger than November. With the large production, stocks of soy oil also grew nearly 16% from November to 1.538 billion pounds.

Mar 18 Soybeans are at $9.64 1/2, up 4 cents,

May 18 Soybeans are at $9.76, up 4 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans are at $9.85 1/4, up 4 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $9.87 3/4, up 4 cents,

Mar 18 Soybean Meal is at $321.50, up $4.50

Mar 18 Soybean Oil is at $32.71, down $0.42

Wheat futures are currently 2 to 5 cents lower in most contracts on Tuesday. Export inspections of wheat for the week that ended Jan 11 totaled 368,651 MT. That was a 56.73% improvement over the previous week but still 4.38% behind same week in 2017. Exports so far in the 17/18 MY are at 15.136 MMT, down 6.5% from the same time in the 16/17 MY. Japan is seeking 24,160 MT of US wheat in their weekly MOA tender, with a total of 91,733 MT sought from Australia, Canada, and the US. Egypt’s GASC purchased 295,000 MT of Russian wheat on Tuesday following Monday’s tender.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.15 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.23 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat is at $6.10, down 2 3/4 cents

Live cattle futures are showing 25 to 45 cent higher trade on Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures are also 40 to 65 cents in the green. The CME feeder cattle index on January 11 was $146.80, down $2.01 from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Tuesday morning. Choice boxes averaged 46 cents lower at $207.57, with Select boxes down 74 cents per cwt at $201.30. Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter was 118,000 head on Monday. That was even with last week. There are already reports of $118 bids in parts of the country on Tuesday.

Feb 18 Cattle are at $117.825, up $0.450,

Apr 18 Cattle are at $119.900, up $0.450,

Jun 18 Cattle are at $111.875, up $0.250,

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle are at $145.000, up $0.650

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle are at $143.075, up $0.425

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle are at $143.400, up $0.400

Lean hog futures are posting sharp $1.525 to $1.65 gains in most front months on Tuesday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $1.35 on January 12 at $71.15. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 36 cents at $81.45 in the Tuesday morning report. The butt and picnic primals were both reported lower. The national base hog weighted average price was down 34 cents to $69.49 on Tuesday morning. The USDA FI hog slaughter was estimated at 393,000 on Monday, which is 75,000 larger than the same Monday last year, but 70,000 head lower than last week.

Feb 18 Hogs are at $73.125, up $1.550,

Apr 18 Hogs are at $75.850, up $1.525

May 18 Hogs are at $80.650, up $1.650

Cotton futures are trading 55 to 59 points lower in the nearby contracts at midday. The US dollar is firmer this morning. During 2017, Chinese cotton imports totaled 1.16 MMT, which was a 27% increase over the previous year. On Friday, the USDA increased the average midpoint farm price for cotton 3 cents to 69 cents/lb, with a range of 67-71 cents. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) was increased 35 points to 71.21 cents/lb on Thursday. The Cotlook A Index for January 15 was 100 points lower than the previous day at 92.35 cents/lb, following the 300 point increase on Jan 12.

Mar 18 Cotton is at 81.13, down 55 points,

May 18 Cotton is at 81.4, down 56 points

Jul 18 Cotton is at 81.63, down 59 points

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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